GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Nellie's Return Guarantees Excitement — and Wins?

While some of the pure excitement of last season's Warriors playoff push and subsequent toppling of the mighty Mavericks was eroded by the frustrating defeat in Round Two to the plodding Jazz — not to mention an awkward summer-long money dance between coach Don Nelson and owner Chris Cohan — opening night of the 2008-09 season will launch what could easily be either the most thrilling or most disappointing season since the introduction of "Spree for Three!" a baker's dozen years ago. The mix of players and coach is that electric — and unpredictable.

Consider, for example, that the most important player on the team, Baron Davis, as fun to watch as any player in the game, is as physically fragile as a teenager's ego. Or that the difference-maker who came from Indiana in the "Dump Dunleavy" trade turned out to be not the equally underachieving Al Harrington, who team honcho Chris Mullin coveted, but the pariah Stephen Jackson, who both cinched the Dallas series by neutralizing the offense of Dirk Nowitzki and choked the Utah series by dribbling into trouble time and again.

Oh, and did we mention our coach uses some, well, slightly unorthodox stratagems?

Then there's the factor of youth. So many of the players who must thrive this year if the Warriors are to be more than fast-breaking spoilers, are still college-aged and growing into their bodies. Take the fresh-faced trio of centers trying to find a niche in Nelson's notoriously not-friendly-to-big-men system: Starter Andris Biedrins, Serb import Kosta Perovic and last year Round One pick Patrick O'Bryant. Their combined age is less than Nelson's, even though they play a position which is said to take years to learn at the NBA level.

Biedrins is the only one of the three guaranteed to get big minutes, having become something of a monster with his quick, soft hands and lively body. He has snuck up on the rest of the league, partly because he is so skinny and young looking, but the fact that he is only 21 means he could conceivably continue to progress toward an All-Star level. To do so, he needs to improve his offensive sophistication, adding more post movies and some short-range shooting skills.

Perovic, the elder statesman of the three at 22, is a Euro-mystery to fans but has been tutored by Vlade Divac and presumably must have convinced Nelson and Mullin he has the skilz worthy of his $1.5 million a year bilz since they had no obligation to bring last year's second-round pick over. As for O'Bryant, Nelson and the fans seem to have given up on him already but, at 21, that seems awful quick. Odds are, though, that he needs to go to a team with a more traditional role for centers if he is going to develop (he was drafted for previous coach Mike Montgomery's scheme).

Of course, if Nelson finds his Kiddie Corps wanting, he won't hesitate to force power forwards like Harrington or off-season pickup Austin Croshere to play the 5 in a small-ball setup. His famous — or infamous, depending on your viewpoint — flexibility gives Nelson not only an edge on coaches, it also allows him to put his favorite 7 or 8 guys on the court every night, regardless of size or position.

What this usually means is the quickest guys make the rotation. Nelson has some Al Davis in him: If you're a burner, he'll get you some burn. And even though it took until mid-September for Nellie and the team to come to an agreement of the size of his raise ($2 million), Mullie spent the off-season making sure the Man from Maui got his favorite Swiss Army knife back: Forward Matt Barnes. Along with Jackson's resurrection, Biedrins' explosion, and child prodigy Monta Ellis' continued rise, Barnes' transformation from NBA bust to crunch-time competitor was one of the Dubs plethora of feel-good stories last year.

However, with the loss by trade of fan-favorite and longtime stalwart Jason Richardson, and the apparent loss of faith in swingman Mikael Pietrus, it would appear that Barnes is going to have to maintain his momentum, now that the novelty has worn off. Who else might breakout? With a team this young, almost everybody is capable of making a leap; #8 pick Brandon Wright, who arrived in the Richardson trade, for example, might see some real minutes as a pogo-stick defender and open-court finisher — or he could ride the pine like a man Nellie took before him. Similarly, with the flyweight Ellis struggling in the playoffs when faced with the tighter defense played in the postseason, the onus will be on him to improve his mid-range jumper and 3-point shooting to keep the lane open for his thrilling high-wire forays into the paint.

Altogether, I think this should be a wonderful season. However, there are going to be some bumps along the way — Baron will get hurt, Jackson may struggle over a whole season, and the new kids will hit a wall by February. In the end, though, the wiser, calmer Nelson we are seeing in his second Warriors iteration will maximize his assets and fulfill the promise made in those last weeks of last season.